Forecast discussion: Showers and light rain have already moved over Rhode Island, as well as the development of advection fog. Advection fog forms moist air moves over a cooler surface. In our case, the cooler surface is the snowpack still on the ground. The fog could be dense, as some parts of eastern Massachusetts has a Dense Fog Advisory in effect until 1 AM Tuesday morning. We will see the precipitation taper off by the start of the morning commute. It will also stay mild, thanks to a warm front slowly moving through in the afternoon. We will see clearing skies, thanks to weak high pressure ridging over the state. But, by tomorrow night, a cold front will pass through, and temperatures will return to seasonable conditions. Dry weather will continue into Wednesday, before we begin to see some moisture move towards Southern New England Wednesday night. A low pressure system that will form off the coast of Texas will slowly move towards the northeast on Friday. A second low in the Great Lakes will help bring some mixed precipitation in for Thursday evening. Last night, I was concerned about the Texas low, as some long range models wanted to intensify the system and make it a Nor’easter. As of the latest model runs, the European and American models keep the low to our south, and push it out to sea. The United Kingdom model actually pushes the Texas low all the way into the Great Lakes. Finally, the Canadian model has the low “blocked” by high pressure, and does not even move into the Northeast until Sunday. After looking over all the scenarios, I will remain with moderate rain through Friday afternoon, tapering to showers by Friday night. The system moves out to sea by Saturday morning, giving us mostly sunny skies. A weak disturbance passes through New England Sunday afternoon, giving us the chance at some flurries or snow showers. We will return to a mix of sun and clouds to start the next workweek. I’ll continue to watch the models, to see if the models begin to agree on the same forecast for the weekend.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Showers/light rain tonight, along with patchy to dense fog. We will see a low of 40.
Tuesday: Showers end by the beginning of the morning commute, becoming mostly sunny later in the day, and a high of 49. Winds will be coming from the west-southwest at 9-12 mph.
Tuesday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 30. Winds will come from the west at 10-14 mph.
Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny with a high of 41.
Wednesday night: Becoming mostly cloudy with a low of 27.
Thursday: Overcast skies, with a high of 43.
Thursday night: Rain/snow showers starting after midnight, with a low of 33.
Friday: Moderate rain, tapering to showers by evening. Highs 44-47, lows 28-31.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs 39-42, lows 25-28.
Sunday: Partly sunny, possible afternoon snow showers. Highs 33-36, lows 20-23.
Monday: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 33-36, lows 19-22.