Forecast discussion: A low pressure system in southeast Canada is bringing an occluded front through the Mid-Atlantic at the moment. An occluded front on a map looks purple, with the combination of the cold front and warm front barbs on the same side. This front will pass through eastern Massachusetts later this evening. It will continue to give us scattered showers into Friday afternoon. High pressure will build into the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday, and give us a nice, sunny day. However, I am still watching a developing low pressure system off the Texas coastline. After looking over the latest model runs, the American model flip-flopped once again. But, the newest model run now keeps the low to our south, with no precipitation at all. We may see a few flurries early Sunday morning from a weak and quick moving disturbance passing over Rhode Island. Over the last few days, my confidence level has been rather low for Sunday. However, all the models are now agreeing that the precipitation will stay away from Rhode Island. With this in mind, I’m upgrading my confidence level for Sunday to fair. Sunny skies will continue into Tuesday, until another low pressure system from the southeast brings some showers for Wednesday evening. However, the American model wants to bring some heavy precipitation for Thursday night into Friday. The other problem is the low stays to our south and east, meaning that colder air will remain over us. The model wants to give us some significant snowfall into Friday. Right now, because this is the only model showing a very strong low pressure system near us, my confidence in the forecast after Thursday afternoon is low.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Scattered showers with a low of 38. North and west of the Mass Pike may see some mixing with wet snow.
Friday: Showers ending in the late afternoon, with some late sunshine, and a high of 47. Winds will come from the west-northwest at 10-14 mph. Patchy fog is expected in the morning.
Friday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 31. Winds will come from the west at 11-14 mph.
Saturday: Mostly sunny with a high of 44.
Saturday night: Mostly cloudy with a few flurries and a low of 31.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a high of 42.
Sunday night: Partly to mostly cloudy, with a low of 26.
Monday: Mostly sunny and windy. Highs 38-41, lows 20-23.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-45, lows 29-32.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with evening showers. Highs 45-48, lows 31-34.
Thursday: Cloudy with morning showers, with periods of rain by the evening. Highs 46-49, lows 33-36.