The big evening has come and gone; the 84th Academy Awards are officially in the books. I can honestly say I had very few surprises, and certainly no pleasant ones. You can read about the winners anywhere, but if you’re here, you’re curious about how my guaranteed 80% success rate on my predictions played out. Again, each category heading lets you inside my deliberation process so you can see what I did right or wrong. Without further ado…
Prediction & winner – The Artist
This one wasn’t difficult, and despite what anyone else said, it was assured the moment Hazanavicius picked up his first trophy…
Prediction & winner – Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
The DGA curve doesn’t lie. For those of you handicapping your picks, this should have been easy.
Prediction & winner – Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Like the previous trophies, Dujardin’s success in other award shows this year made this a slam dunk.
Prediction – Viola Davis, The Help
Winner – Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
I can’t say I’m surprised. If you read my original article on this subject, it was down to a coin toss. When The Iron Lady took the makeup award, I knew I was in trouble.
Best Supporting Actor:
Prediction & winner – Christopher Plummer, Beginners
This was the night’s strongest guarantee, and Plummer handled it with class.
Best Supporting Actress:
Prediction & winner – Octavia Spencer, The Help
Again, the odds were just stacked against anyone else.
Best Original Screenplay:
Prediction & winner – Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Another lock. You’d figure Allen could show up when he knows he’s going to win.
Best Adapted Screenplay:
Prediction & winner – A. Payne, N. Faxon & J. Rash, The Descendants
Alexander Payne now has two screenplay trophies. If he releases a movie in October and pushes to have it distributed by the Weinsteins, he can’t lose on a sweep.
Best Documentary Feature:
Prediction – Pina
Winner – Undefeated
Speaking of the Weinsteins, they taught us a valuable lesson at the ceremony: never underestimate them. One of the least acclaimed documentaries in the bunch ended up taking over, and the acceptance speech was the most irritating moment of the night.
Prediction – Emmanuel Lubezki, The Tree of Life
Winner – Robert Richardson, Hugo
This was my most disappointing moment of the night. Lubezki apparently can’t buy an Oscar, and though Richardson is certainly worthy of praise, this win proves that the Academy loves 3D and wants it to stay.
Best Foreign Language Film:
Prediction & winner – Asghar Farhadi, A Separation (Iran)
This category is usually impossible, but this award may go a long way toward strengthening potential diplomatic relations with Iran.
Best Animated Feature Film:
Prediction & winner – Gore Verbinski, Rango
It’s gratifying that a truly odd film like this can beat out more conventional competition.
Best Art Direction:
Prediction & winner – Dante Ferretti, Hugo
Traditionally this award goes to the film set in the earliest era. Hugo was a better movie than War Horse, so here we are.
Best Film Editing:
Prediction – A.S. Bion & M. Hazanavicius – The Artist
Winner – A. Wall & K. Baxter – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
This was an admitted blunder on my part, but my guess, which should have been Hugo, was still wrong. This is the second straight win for Fincher’s editing team.
Best Original Score:
Prediction & winner – Ludovic Bource, The Artist
This was another easy one. With no dialogue, the score is the voice of the entire movie.
Best Original Song:
Prediction & winner – B. McKenzie, Man or Muppet from The Muppets
With only two choices, this one was easy. Now one of the guys from Flight of the Conchords has an Oscar!
Best Costume Design:
Prediction & winner – Mark Bridges, The Artist
Sandy Powell (politely) chided the Academy over the fact that films other than period pictures should win this award in 2010, and this is the result.
Best Sound Mixing:
Prediction & winner – Tom Fleischman & John Midgley, Hugo
Since the Transformers series has suffered middling reviews, the award tailor made for action films had only one home; a busy train station full of clocks and a movie studio.
Best Sound Editing:
Prediction & winner – Philip Stockton & Eugene Gearty, Hugo
I understand the distinction between the sound awards better than most, but if they’re just going to give these awards to the same movie every year, they might as well merge them.
Prediction – Albert Nobbs
Winner – The Iron Lady
Apparently, making Meryl look old is harder than making Glenn look like a man. I was disappointed about this instantly; I could see the makeup application lines in the close-ups in The Iron Lady, and Albert Nobbs was so spot on it was creepy.
Best Visual Effects:
Prediction – Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Winner – Hugo
This category was another flat-out bungle, as I went for my heart instead of my gut. I really thought my prediction is better, but managed to forget that Hugo was sweeping the technical categories.
So, how did I do? Well, awarding myself points based on my earlier article, I amassed 115 total points, earning me a 74% conversion rate on my predictions. Good thing no one held me to anything for failing to deliver on my guarantee!
E-mail Bryan at ExaminerFilm@gmail.com for questions, advice, opinions, and suggestions. Questions, advice, and opinions may be posted anonymously. Follow Bryan on Twitter at ExaminerFilm.