During Karl Rove’s recent appearance on the O’Reilly Factor, he dropped a numbers of bombshells on President Obama’s re-election campaign. Here’s part of what he said:
“I think North Carolina is gone just like Indiana is gone. I think Ohio and Florida are leaning today towards Romney. I think places like Iowa and Colorado are in danger of floating into the Republican column. And states like Nevada and Pennsylvania are moving from lean Democrat into toss-up category. And on June 5th, mark my words, we will have more poll data than we got today that is going to show that Wisconsin’s a battleground state.”
The unions’ in-your-face type of politicking in Wisconsin isn’t playing well in the recall election. It’s certain that it won’t play well in the general election. The other thing hurting President Obama’s re-election chances is the spectacular GOTV operation the Republican Party of Wisconsin has put together.
Polls certainly provide a snapshot of what’s happening in a particular state. The thing people should be watching is what a collection of state polls are telling us. This summer, expect the Obama campaign point to poll after poll with favorable poll results. They’ll be there because the Invested-in-Obama-Media will manufacture polls to prop up their president.
When the Invested-in-Obama-Media starts touting these polls, it’s important not to put too much importance on a single poll. Savvy political observers will watch whether the polling shows President Obama’s path to victory shrinking.
For instance, if Mr. Rove is right that North Carolina and Indiana are gone for President Obama. President Obama’s chances shrink because that takes 26 electoral votes off the table for him.
Then there’s the coal states of Ohio, Virginia and Pennsylvania. If Mitt wins 2 of those 3 states, which is likely, that’s another 35-40 electoral votes off the table for President Obama.
In 2008, President Obama accumulated 338 electoral votes in his smashing victory. Subtracting 60 electoral votes from his total suddenly puts him at 278. At that point, he’d lose re-election if he lost Florida or Colorado or Wisconsin. At this point, it’s quite possible for President Obama to lose one of those states, possibly losing 2 of those states.